As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, Canadian authorities and migrant aid groups are anticipating an increase in asylum seekers seeking to cross the border into Canada.
This prediction is due to the future American president’s promises to lead the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, an initiative that could encourage large numbers of migrants to flee north.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has been preparing for several months for what it calls the “worst case scenario”.
Canada had been anticipating a possible Donald Trump comeback for several months, when the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power became tangible. As a result, the government had then begun to put in place a set of provisions likely to palliate the migratory flow, according to Sergeant Charles Poirier quoted by Reuters.
“We knew a few months ago that we had to start preparing an emergency plan, because if he came to power, which he will in a few months’ time, this could lead to illegal and irregular migration in (the province of) Quebec and in Canada,” he told Reuters. The RCMP’s fear is that a wave of migrants will cross the border irregularly, making it difficult to manage and secure the situation.
The memory of Trump’s first presidency, in 2017, is still fresh. At that time, thousands of asylum seekers had crossed the Canadian border to escape strict migration policies in the United States. The majority of these crossings took place at Roxham Road, an unofficial crossing point between Quebec and New York State. However, this route is no longer accessible due to the expansion of the bilateral agreement between Canada and the United States. From now on, asylum seekers attempting to cross the border, regardless of location, risk being sent back, unless they meet specific criteria.
For those who want to apply for asylum, it becomes necessary to cross the border discreetly, stay hidden for two weeks, and only then begin their application – a situation that migrant rights advocates describe as dangerous, Reuters noted.
Abdulla Daoud, director of the Montreal Refugee Centre, points out that this restriction risks pushing migrants to take more risks. “When you don’t create legitimate access routes, or when you only create access routes where people have to do the impossible to be safe, you know, unfortunately, that people will try to do the impossible,” he lamented. Human rights activists expect the number of people taking these risks to increase in the coming months.
To manage this potential influx, the RCMP is on “high alert”, according to Sergeant Poirier.
Preparations include deploying additional resources to patrol the border. “All eyes are on the border right now,” he said, adding that the number of officers could be significantly increased if the situation demands it. These measures also include mobilizing additional patrol vehicles, chartering buses, building trailers and renting land to meet security and reception needs.
The current context is also marked by a record number of asylum claims in Canada. In July, Canada recorded almost 20,000 claims, a record figure according to the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB).
Although this figure dropped slightly to around 16,400 in September, it remains high by historical standards. According to the IRB, more than 250,000 asylum claims are currently awaiting processing.
Against this backdrop of overcrowding, refugee support groups such as Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Centre are already working at full capacity. Its founder, Loly Rico, expects the demand for assistance to increase as more migrants cross the border to seek protection and support. She is particularly concerned about the risks of crossing during winter, recalling the tragedy of 2022 when a family of four froze to death trying to cross the border near Emerson, Manitoba. “It’s going to be hard for any refugee in the U.S. to feel like they belong, and that’s why they’ll start looking for other countries that might be able to offer them protection,” she explained.
Canada’s decision to tighten its border has also opened the door to smugglers, according to Rico. Where migrants once tried to cross alone, they are increasingly turning to networks of smugglers to help them enter Canada discreetly. This trend, she notes, exposes migrants to additional risks and pushes them to pay high fees.
For Abdulla Daoud, the anticipation of a new influx underscores the need for investment in Canada’s reception infrastructure for asylum seekers. “Unfortunately, until the government changes its policy in this area, the situation will remain unchanged. We won’t be prepared, and the issue will once again become politicized”, he asserted, calling on the government to act to prevent the question from becoming a divisive political issue.
Despite the concerns, the Canadian government says it is ready to deal. Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, said he had an action plan to deal with the increase in asylum claims, without providing specific details. In a press release, the Immigration Department said it would continue to “prepare for and anticipate all possible scenarios”, adding that any response to the situation would be aimed at protecting the interests of Canada and its residents.
Meanwhile, RCMP officers and migrant aid groups remain on the alert, prepared for the “worst case scenario” as North America prepares to deal with the consequences of Trump’s migration policy.
Haitians in the United States illegally are the groups most targeted by the president-elect, who has never missed an opportunity to attack Haitians in the United States, whom he promises to deport en masse during his second term.
After Mr. Trump’s election in 2016, more than 25,000 Haitians had left the United States for Canada. The vast majority of them had certain legal documents, such as temporary protection statuses and the like. But Donald Trump’s rhetoric had left them no choice but to seek refuge in Canada.
Note1:
This article is written by Emmanuel Paul based on an article published by Reuters. Quotations may differ slightly from the article published in English by Reuters, which you can view by clicking on the link below.
Note2:
Note: This article was originally written in French. It was translated using translation software and edited by Emmanuel Paul. Quotations and extracts in this article may differ slightly from the original version.
To read the original article in French, please visit our French page below.
Le Canada se prépare déjà aux conséquences migratoires du retour de Donald Trump