Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation strategy is expected to exacerbate not only inflationary pressures but also America’s existing demographic challenges, according to several prominent economists.
“The American workforce is aging at an unprecedented rate in our nation’s history,” emphasized Alan Berube, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who is analyzing the potential consequences of a significant reduction in immigration.
In his interview with Business Insider, Berube explained that immigrants, who are typically younger than the national average, play a critical role in counterbalancing the effects of an aging population.
Should net immigration fall to significantly low levels—defined by Brookings as between 350,000 and 600,000 people annually—the U.S. population could shrink by 4% by the year 2100. In the more extreme scenario of completely closing borders, the population could drop by 32% by the century’s end.
Demographic projections indicate that under a low-immigration scenario, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older could climb to 57% of the working-age population by 2100, compared to 28% in 2022.
Donald Trump has pledged to deport the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants currently residing in the U.S., according to data from the Center for Migration Studies. The former president also plans to reinstate travel bans from his first term and further restrict the admission of refugees from specific nations.
“The American people overwhelmingly reelected President Trump, giving him the mandate to fulfill the promises he made during the campaign. He will deliver on those promises,” stated Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for Trump’s campaign, in a statement to Business Insider.
Economists warn that such restrictive immigration policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor.
Immigrant workers often fill roles left vacant by American citizens, particularly in industries such as hospitality, transportation, construction, and healthcare.
José Torres, chief economist at Interactive Brokers, highlighted the heightened vulnerability of industries like construction and agriculture, which depend heavily on undocumented immigrant labor. He noted that the construction industry faces an annual worker shortfall of between 200,000 and 400,000 individuals.
“Immigrant inflows create positive economic momentum. These newcomers, driven by the pursuit of economic opportunities, contribute significantly to short-term GDP growth through their active participation in the workforce,” Torres explained.
This perspective is echoed by Todd Buchholz, a former White House economist under President George H.W. Bush, who warned about the implications of restricting immigration on America’s aging population. “If you say no one else is coming, that the door is closed, and no one else can play… we will shrink, have more older people, and fewer workers to support them,” Buchholz said.
The U.S. has been grappling with a steady decline in birth rates for decades. Business Insider reported that, according to the CDC, 2023 saw a record-low general fertility rate, with fewer than 55 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44.
“Immigration serves as a strategic response to demographic challenges, bringing in a younger, more dynamic population that offsets the aging of our society. These newcomers are typically highly active in the labor market, driving economic growth,” Berube analyzed.
According to the Pew Research Center, approximately 8.3 million undocumented immigrant workers formed a vital part of the U.S. labor force in 2022, supporting critical economic sectors.
Berube emphasized that the impact of Trump’s immigration policies would likely fall between the scenarios of restricted immigration and a complete border closure. However, he warned that reducing the immigrant labor force would only worsen challenges related to an aging population and labor shortages.
In this complex situation, economic experts recommend a thorough analysis to find an optimal balance between restrictive immigration policies and the demographic and economic needs of the United States.
Immigration remains a central and highly sensitive issue in America’s public discourse. This topic has become a cornerstone of Trump’s rhetoric, as he commits to deporting more than 11 million undocumented immigrants from U.S. soil.
Trump’s immigration strategy primarily targets migrants from Central America and Mexico, groups toward whom he has maintained a consistent antagonism.
During his campaign, Trump specifically attacked the Haitian community in Springfield, spreading unfounded rumors that they were consuming residents’ pets.
Trump’s rhetoric has already had significant repercussions on Springfield’s Haitian community, prompting many members to leave the city for destinations more welcoming to immigrants.
This article, initially written in French by Emmanuel Paul, draws from a Business Insider article. The English translation was completed using AI tools. Quotations may slightly differ from those in the original article, which is accessible via this link.