Introduction and summary
Russian forces are massed along Ukrainian borders threatening to invade. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster for Ukraine, for Russia, and potentially for the rules-based international system that the world has sought to construct since 1945. Avoiding war is critical, and all sides should engage diplomatically to head off conflict. However, a Russian military invasion of Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion. While such an action would be in step with other risky provocations taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin, it would be an incredibly bold, rash, and potentially ruinous one. But should Putin decide to launch another invasion of Ukraine, the United States must lead a robust response. A Russian decision to resort to force must be seen in time as a strategic defeat—a self-defeating step that would prove ruinous economically and geopolitically for the Kremlin.
The stakes could not be higher. The Kremlin’s dismemberment of democratic Ukraine would be an unspeakable tragedy for the Ukrainian people and would represent a huge setback for democracy worldwide. More broadly, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would pose a significant threat to the post-1945 world order. In the past half century, the world has seen a dramatic decline in interstate conflict. A Russian invasion of Ukraine will thus have global implications. Moreover, if an invasion were seen as successful and of relatively low cost to Russia, it could normalize interstate conflict, prompting a return to the might-makes-right geopolitics of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Irredentist goals are not just present among Russian nationalists in the Kremlin. The desire to redraw maps, to take territory, and to reincorporate ethnic brethren “stranded” beyond borders is prevalent throughout the world. If Russia is seen as getting away with dismembering a democratic neighbor, China might feel emboldened to do the same to…