Despite the Trump administration’s mass-deportation posture and tighter rules on money transfers, Haitian expatriates in the United States continue to buoy their homeland. They do so with sizable remittances that help families and, by extension, support an economy mired in a prolonged crisis.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Haiti is in its seventh consecutive year of recession. Inflation hovers near 32%. Yet, even amid worsening conditions, remittance inflows are helping to shore up external accounts. The IMF noted, “These inflows have strengthened the current account balance, which is projected to record a moderate surplus this budget year.” Meanwhile, Haiti’s nominal exchange rate has remained relatively stable, and foreign reserves exceed $3.1 billion, according to Miami Herald’s Jacqueline Charles. She contextualized those macroeconomic stabilizers against a deteriorating political and security backdrop.
International aid has declined. Key export sectors have slumped. Armed groups’ control of strategic roadways has disrupted commerce. Against that backdrop, cross-border family support has partially filled the gap. Last year, formal remittance channels surpassed $4 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, according to Haiti’s central bank (BRH). The majority of those funds originated in the United States.
Beyond the annual total, the near-term trend is striking. Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration and Remittances Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, reports a marked acceleration. Between January and June this year, Haiti received $2.2 billion in remittances. Of this, $1.8 billion was sent from the United States. As Orozco put it, “In the first six months of 2024, U.S. outbound was $1.2 billion. That’s a 50% increase for 2025.” He added, “The total volume is 20% higher than 2024.”
At the household level, the average transfer size has also climbed. It rose from $140 in October 2024 to $160 in August 2025. Orozco attributes the increase largely to the behavior of migrants under uncertainty. Amid stepped-up arrests and enforcement by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), many send more than usual as a precautionary risk mitigation measure in case they are deported. He says this pattern is also evident among other Latin American and Caribbean diasporas.
That interpretation aligns with the IMF’s assessment that rising remittances may reflect anticipation of changes in international migration policies. The Fund, however, warns of medium-term risks. “In addition, potential shifts in foreign immigration and trade policies could sharply reduce exports and remittance inflows.” The IMF further cautions, “These developments could compound the adverse impact of the security crisis on domestic production, worsen the humanitarian and economic crisis, and increase fiscal pressures.”
On the migration front, the landscape has shifted in recent months. The administration of President Donald Trump revoked humanitarian parole for hundreds of thousands of nationals of Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela admitted under the prior U.S. program. It also announced an end to longstanding deportation protections for some Haitians who have lived in the United States for decades. Legal challenges contest the government’s assertion that Haiti is sufficiently safe for returns. Advocates brace for tighter enforcement as of February 3, 2026, when Haiti’s Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation is slated to end. In that context, Orozco anticipates a possible inflection next year: “For 2026, I see there will be a decline due to declining Haitian migration to the U.S., a slight return of Haitians [home] among other trends,” with “possibly at least 50,000 fewer transactions per month out of one million from the U.S.”
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis is deepening. In its latest alert, the World Food Program (WFP) warns that 51% of Haiti’s population is experiencing acute hunger. This is a three percentage point increase from a year ago. Malnutrition among children under five has doubled in two years—from 7% to 14%. The rates are higher in some areas. The Office of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres stated, “The crisis in Haiti is acutely underfunded.” WFP requires $139 million over the next 12 months to reach the most vulnerable households, reports the Miami Herald.
On the fiscal front, Haitian officials have approved a new budget, albeit later than the Oct. 1 start of the fiscal year. Macroeconomic anchors such as reserves and exchange-rate stability offer some relative steadiness. However, negative growth, supply constraints, and conflict-driven logistics disruptions continue to strain the country’s capacity to adapt. For now, remittances remain a critical shock absorber.
In a country where more than 70% of households rely—at least in part—on money sent from abroad, these flows help cover the costs of healthcare, school fees, and food.
What remains uncertain is the trajectory of U.S. policy.
While remittances have temporarily “strengthened” Haiti’s external balance, their durability will hinge on expatriates’ living conditions and the legal framework governing their stay.
A contraction—due to migration restrictions, forced returns, or smaller average transfers—would directly affect household consumption in Haiti and the liquidity of the domestic economy. In the short term, however, data compiled by Orozco indicate a heightened effort by senders aimed at “risk mitigation” in the face of potential deportation, as noted by Jacqueline Charles.
