The Biden administration has concluded that a new Russian military offensive against Ukraine is “much more likely,” as one senior official put it, than a diplomatic resolution and could come within days. The United States and Europe could seek to forestall this through preemptive surrender, giving Putin control over Ukraine and a measure of security control over Moscow’s former empire in Europe. This is what the Kremlin is demanding, and achieving it through intimidation may be what Putin seeks now. But can the United States and Europe prevent an escalation of Putin’s war against Ukraine without consigning tens of millions of Europeans to Kremlin control or leaving them vulnerable to future Kremlin intimidation?
Where the Crisis Stands
The United States seeks to prevent Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine without surrendering the objectives for which it fought World War II and the Cold War: a united Europe, no longer subjected to tyrannical rule or aggression. U.S. tactics in this case are based on a two-track approach: developing the “sticks” of arms to Ukraine, troops to NATO’s Eastern flank countries, and potential sanctions; and applying the “carrots” of diplomacy, including arms control and other solid risk-reduction measures. Both tracks have advanced: the United States and NATO have put offers on the table; and arms are flowing to Ukraine, American troops are on the move (not to Ukraine, but to NATO’s Eastern tier of countries), and a powerful set of sanctions and other economic tools are at advanced stages of preparation. All this is supported by Allied unity as good as existed during the Cold War (German hesitation and French style notwithstanding).
It hasn’t been enough. The Biden administration has hoped that the “sticks” would convince Putin to take the diplomatic path. That’s not happening. In a long meeting on Feb. 10 with French President Emmanuel Macron, Putin put on his familiar bored boy slouch, alternating,…