The state of Idaho is preparing for a major upheaval in immigration management following the imminent arrival of the Trump administration.
Undocumented workers, who make up a significant portion of the workforce in vital sectors such as agriculture, construction and hospitality, and their employers, are on high alert for the next administration’s mass deportation policies. These measures, promised by President-elect Donald Trump, could lead to significant changes in Idaho’s economy. This scenario was extensively detailed in an article by Laura Guido published in Idaho Press.
A large population of undocumented workers
Idaho is home to around 35,000 undocumented immigrants, according to a University of Idaho report cited by Idaho Press in 2021. Of these, around 86% work in sectors crucial to the state, such as agriculture, hospitality and construction. These workers, although excluded from public assistance such as food or Medicaid, contribute substantially to the state’s finances by paying income and sales taxes. However, strict enforcement of deportation policies, such as those proposed by the Trump administration, could upset this dynamic.
Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, highlighted the major risks associated with such policies. “If you remove 30,000 unauthorized workers in Idaho, look at our unemployment numbers. There are no local workers willing to take those jobs,” he told Idaho Press.
Indeed, with an unemployment rate of just 3.7% in October 2023, according to the Idaho Department of Labor, local workers probably wouldn’t be able to fill the void left by undocumented workers. Naerebout pointed out that in Idaho’s dairy industry, around 5,000 foreign workers are employed, and that nearly 90% of the workforce in this sector is of foreign origin.
A new reality for employers
Idaho employers are bracing for significant changes in immigration regulations, as Idaho Press explains.
Holland & Hart partners Chris Thomas and Dean Bennett hosted a presentation to help employers anticipate the consequences of the Trump administration’s new policies.
Thomas warned that increased audits of I-9 forms, used to verify workers’ eligibility to work in the U.S., should be expected. In addition, employers will have to contend with immigration agents potentially infiltrating their workforce. “We’re preaching a philosophy of paranoia here. It’s time to assume that every conversation is recovered,” said Thomas, pointing out that immigration agents could go undercover.
Under this policy, employers will need to be particularly vigilant. Thomas gave the example of suspicious conversations with employees, where the latter could reveal their illegal immigrant status. He advised employers to properly document these exchanges and protect themselves by indicating that the employee has been informed of their illegal status. “If you have this strange conversation, create a defense file and simply say, ‘We didn’t know you were here illegally, and unfortunately, that means it’s your last day.’”
Moral dilemmas for employers
The advice given to Idaho employers by Thomas and Bennett is not without moral consequences.
Bennett expressed the emotional difficulties an employer might face when having to part ways with a long-serving employee, even if that employee is illegal. “It’s difficult when an employee has been with you for 15 years and you realize something about them,” Bennett said, according to Idaho Press. “But remember, it’s for your own protection and the company’s. And as bad as it sounds, you and your business probably need to come first.”
Growing concern among immigrant workers
Concern is palpable among undocumented workers, although some are less worried than others. According to Naerebout, some workers seem less worried because of Trump’s broken promises in his first term. “I think there are also a number of them who look at this with a grain of salt,” Naerebout said. “It’s a bit of a mix of attitudes among immigrant workers, and at the end of the day, there’s certainly more concern within immigrant communities.”
However, the concern isn’t just limited to the federal government’s actions. Many Idaho lawmakers are also pushing for stricter immigration policies. Governor Brad Little joined 25 other Republican governors in signing a statement in support of Trump’s proposed immigration policies. The declaration states that the governors are prepared to use all means at their disposal, including local law enforcement and the National Guard, to support the implementation of the president-elect’s deportation policies.
State-level measures: securing borders and cracking down on illegal immigration
At local level, bills have been proposed to tighten immigration controls. During the last legislative session, a proposal to create a new felony for anyone entering the state illegally was discussed. This bill would allow local law enforcement to verify the immigration status of individuals. Although the bill did not come to fruition, it demonstrates the political will to strengthen homeland security measures and combat illegal immigration. Other resolutions were also passed, calling on the federal government to strengthen border security.
Challenges for the dairy industry and agriculture
Idaho’s agricultural industry, particularly dairy, is particularly vulnerable to the impact of Trump’s immigration policies. Naerebout insisted that the dairy industry simply couldn’t survive without its foreign workforce. “You can’t remove 50% of the agricultural workforce without jeopardizing America’s ability to feed itself,” he said. “This risk goes far beyond the dairy industry and also affects other sectors such as construction, hospitality, medical services, and many others.”
In addition, Naerebout noted that the dairy industry has long advocated access to legal work visa programs, such as the H-2A, which allows authorized foreign workers to work in agriculture. However, as dairy farm work is continuous, it does not meet the criteria of the H-2A program, which is intended for seasonal workers. This situation creates additional tensions for employers seeking to attract a legal workforce.
E-Verify and the risks for employers
Idaho employers may also face additional challenges, even if they use E-Verify, an online U.S. government tool designed to verify employees’ eligibility to work. However, Chris Thomas pointed out that E-Verify is unreliable and employers could still be prosecuted for hiring undocumented workers, even if the system has validated their information. “Everyone in government knows that E-Verify is a farce, it doesn’t work,” he asserted.
An uncertain future for Idaho’s economy
As Idaho prepares for the repercussions of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, the implications for the state’s economy remain uncertain. The agricultural sector, which relies heavily on foreign workers, could find itself in a tricky situation. As Naerebout pointed out, the stakes go far beyond the dairy industry and concern all sectors that depend on this essential workforce.
Laura Guido’s Idaho Press article highlights the daunting challenges facing Idaho employers, workers and legislators as deportation and immigration policies take shape under the Trump administration. The road ahead remains complex and fraught with pitfalls, with far-reaching implications for the future of the state’s economy.
Source: Idaho Press.