The Concacaf standings have thawed a bit, one World Cup qualifying window remains, and it’s looking very much like the three nations who won’t have to qualify in 2026 will be the ones occupying the region’s automatic berths in Qatar this fall.
Canada, the United States and Mexico remain the top-three teams in the Octagonal table after a unique winter window that featured a bit of everything. There were the much-discussed subzero temperatures in Minnesota on Wednesday night, there was one of the more bizarre goals you’ll see scored by a 38-year-old Canadian veteran in El Salvador and there were allegations of COVID-19-positive players featuring for Costa Rica in Jamaica. There was a subpar Mexico side eking its way to three points on a dodgy penalty and there were eliminations of two sides, leaving six still in the mix for places at the World Cup.
Realistically speaking, though, it’s down to five, with El Salvador, at best, able to finish in fourth place, whose prize is an intercontinental playoff against Oceania’s champion in Qatar in June.
In practice, it’s down to the 2026 World Cup cohosts, Panama and Costa Rica, with one final window to sort out all the drama. Here are the pathways to Qatar that remain, with qualifying due to wrap up in the final week of March:
CANADA
Canada is in the luxurious position of being able to clinch with a win in any of its last three games, as it holds a comfortable four-point lead over the U.S. and Mexico and an eight-point edge on Panama. It has already ensured that at worst—and it would take true and utter catastrophe—it’ll finish fourth, but the Canadians are more likely to finish atop the table than just eke their way in.
John Herdman’s side, fresh off a nine-point window impressively achieved without the services of Alphonso Davies, plays at Costa Rica, at home vs. Jamaica and then at Panama to close qualifying. A win in San José or a draw and a Panama draw or loss against Honduras is one…